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Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AUPH)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 delivered strong year-over-year growth: total revenue $59.9M (+33% YoY), LUPKYNIS net product sales $57.6M (+36% YoY), and diluted EPS $0.01 versus $(0.19) prior year; gross margin reached 91% and operating cash flow was $30.1M .
  • Full-year 2024 revenue was $235.1M (+34% YoY) with net product sales $216.2M (+36% YoY); the company returned to profitability (net income $5.8M) and generated $44.4M in operating cash flow .
  • 2025 guidance introduced: total revenue $250–$260M and net product sales $240–$250M; management emphasized focus on rheumatology, hospital channel, and ACR guideline tailwinds, and plans initial Phase 1 data for AUR200 in Q2 2025 .
  • Potential stock catalysts: ACR guideline adoption driving earlier and longer therapy duration, AUR200 Phase 1 readout (Q2 2025), ongoing share repurchases (≈9.7M shares repurchased for ~$70M through Feb 25, 2025), and IP defense with patents potentially extending protection to 2037 and earliest generic entry assumed mid-2028 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • LUPKYNIS net product sales grew 36% YoY to $57.6M in Q4; total revenue up 33% YoY to $59.9M, reflecting continued LN market penetration .
  • Gross margin expanded to 91% in Q4 (vs 88% prior year), supported by mix and efficiencies; operating cash flow more than doubled to $30.1M in Q4 .
  • Management highlighted strategic focus areas (rheumatology prescribers, hospital channel, treat-to-target mindset) and initiated AUR200 Phase 1 with initial data expected Q2 2025: “We remain focused on increasing LUPKYNIS’s adoption…while…advancing…AUR200” .

What Went Wrong

  • License/collaboration/royalty revenue declined 18% YoY in Q4 to $2.3M, reflecting milestone timing and lower manufacturing services versus prior-year quarter .
  • Full-year gross margin compressed (88% in 2024 vs 92% in 2023) due to Monoplant amortization and lower-margin Otsuka manufacturing sales earlier in the year .
  • Company ceased reporting patient-level KPIs in Q4 (PSFs, conversion, persistency), reducing disclosure granularity; management stated historical financials provide sufficient insight going forward .

Financial Results

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Total Revenue ($USD Millions)$57.192 $67.771 $59.867
Net Product Sales ($USD Millions)$55.028 $55.503 $57.582
License/Collab/Royalty ($USD Millions)$2.164 $12.268 $2.285
Gross Margin (%)84% 91% 91%
Net Income ($USD Millions)$0.722 $14.350 $1.429
Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.01 $0.10 $0.01
Operating Cash Flow ($USD Millions)$(2.755) $17.0 $30.1

Segment revenue breakdown

SegmentQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Net Product Sales ($USD Millions)$55.028 $55.503 $57.582
License/Collab/Royalty ($USD Millions)$2.164 $12.268 $2.285

KPIs (disclosure evolution)

KPIQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Patient Start Forms (PSFs) added428 364 Not disclosed
Restarts + Hospital Adds (quarter)~127 146 Not disclosed
Patients on Therapy (period-end)~2,336 ~2,422 Not disclosed
PSF Conversion Rate~85% Consistent with prior quarter Not disclosed
Time to Convert~60% within 20 days Consistent with prior quarter Not disclosed
Adherence Rate~88% Consistent Not disclosed
Persistency (12/15/18 months)56% / 51% / 46% Consistent Not disclosed

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Total Revenue ($USD Millions)FY 2025None$250–$260 New
Net Product Sales ($USD Millions)FY 2025None$240–$250 New
Net Product Revenue ($USD Millions)FY 2024$210–$220 (reiterated Nov 7, 2024) Actual $216.186 Maintained → Achieved
Restructuring Charge ($USD Millions)Q4 2024$15–$19 (anticipated) Actual $15.351 In-range
Annualized Cash-based OpEx SavingsPost-Restructuring>$40M (estimate) Continuing execution (no update) Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 2024 and Q3 2024)Current Period (Q4 2024)Trend
AUR200 Phase 1 progressSAD to start Q3; data 1H25 . First participant dosed; $10M Japan milestone in Q3 .Phase 1 ongoing; initial results expected Q2 2025 .On track; near-term readout
ACR LN guidelines adoptionNew campaign targeting rheumatologists; earlier use, 3+ years therapy .Expect guidelines to drive positive momentum; treat-to-target mindset emphasized . Company commends ACR update endorsing LUPKYNIS in triple regimen .Building adoption
Commercial focus (rheumatology, hospitals)Hospital channel growing; restarts rising .Prioritized high-prescribing rheumatology offices and lupus centers; hospital continuity of care .Increased focus
KPI disclosureDetailed PSFs/convert/adherence/persistency shared .Company ceased patient-level metrics; relies on financial trends .Reduced disclosure
IP and generic timingNot explicitly discussed.Earliest generic entry base case mid-2028; robust portfolio incl. dosing paradigm potentially to 2037; will defend vigorously .Clarified strategy
International (Otsuka)Sales to Otsuka; anticipating Japan approval; low double-digit royalties .Q3: $10M milestone Japan approval; ongoing royalties/manufacturing services .Transitioning to royalties

Management Commentary

  • “With the continued focus on commercial execution and operational efficiency, we achieved significant growth in total revenue and record-setting net product sales in the fourth quarter of 2024.”
  • “We remain focused on increasing LUPKYNIS’s adoption…while…advancing our important pipeline product, AUR200…We expect to report initial results…in the second quarter of 2025.”
  • “We believe our historical financial results provide sufficient insight…Therefore, we're not providing specific patient level metrics.”
  • “We fully intend to vigorously defend LUPKYNIS and our intellectual property rights…[with protection] which could take us all the way out to 2037.”

Q&A Highlights

  • Commercial execution and guidance pacing: Management framed 2025 guidance on five years of market experience; low end aligned to Q4 run-rate, higher end implies stronger growth; they do not view guidance as conservative .
  • Prescriber focus and segmentation: Post-restructuring emphasis on high-prescribing rheumatology offices, lupus centers, and hospital segment to accelerate earlier diagnosis and continuity of care under ACR treat-to-target framework .
  • AUR200 readout scope: SAD data will include PK/PD and immunoglobulin markers (IgG/IgA/IgM); disclosures and MAD design will follow after data review; potency may enable lower/less frequent dosing subject to human data .
  • KPI reporting: Decision to stop PSF metrics at year-end; management believes financials are sufficiently predictive after multiple years on market .
  • Exclusivity and generics: Earliest generic entry base case still mid-2028; robust patents cover chemical entity and dosing paradigm; plan to defend IP .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global (Capital IQ) Wall Street consensus for Q4 2024 EPS and revenue was unavailable at time of request due to data access limitations; therefore, comparisons to consensus are not provided. If required, we will update the tables and highlight beats/misses once S&P Global estimates are accessible.
  • Management did not cite external consensus on the call; focus remained on 2025 guidance ranges .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • LUPKYNIS demand remains resilient with double-digit revenue growth and 91% Q4 gross margin; Q4 operating cash flow of $30.1M underscores improved efficiency post-restructuring .
  • 2025 guidance ($250–$260M total revenue; $240–$250M net product sales) is anchored in historical run-rates; upside could come from ACR guideline adoption and hospital channel growth .
  • Disclosure shift (no patient-level KPIs) places greater emphasis on quarterly financials; monitor revenue cadence, gross margin, and cash generation for near-term trading signals .
  • IP position (potential protection to 2037) and earliest generic timing (mid-2028 base case) reduce near-term erosion risk; litigation-defense posture is clear .
  • Near-term catalyst: AUR200 Phase 1 SAD data in Q2 2025—PK/PD and immunoglobulin effects may frame differentiation and MAD design; strong preclinical potency claims set expectations but require human confirmation .
  • International monetization via Otsuka continues (royalties/manufacturing services); Japan approval milestone recognized in Q3 2024 signals progress .
  • Watch for continued share repurchase activity (≈9.7M shares; ~$70M through Feb 25, 2025) and cash flow trajectory as potential technical supports for the stock .

Appendix: Additional Data

Full-year results and balance sheet highlights

  • FY 2024: Total revenue $235.1M (+34% YoY), net product sales $216.2M (+36% YoY), net income $5.8M, operating cash flow $44.4M .
  • Cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash, and investments: $358.5M at Dec 31, 2024; shareholders’ equity $377.5M .
  • Q4 operating expenses included a restructuring charge of $15.351M; SG&A $37.032M; R&D $8.107M .

ACR guideline context

  • ACR 2024 LN guidelines recommend triple immunosuppression with first-line advanced therapies like LUPKYNIS for 3–5 years, with steroid tapering to <5 mg/day by 6 months and proteinuria target <0.5 g/g by 12 months; company expects adoption tailwinds .